A poll by Alpha Research agency has found that Boiko Borissov’s GERB still has the highest proportion of support among those who would vote in an election, but is falling slightly, while support for the Kiril Petkov-Assen Vassilev We Continue the Change party (WCC) is increasing.
The poll, conducted between June 25 and July 1, showed support for GERB at 21.5 percent, up from 21.7 percent in April, while support for the WCC rose from 18.4 percent to 20.2 percent over the same period rise.
The poll was conducted after a series of turbulent political events in Bulgaria – those of cable TV presenter Slavi Trifonov 8th June Announcing the exit of his ITN party from the governing coalition June 16th WCC dismissal of Nikola Minchev as speaker of Parliament, the June 22 vote of no confidence in the government, and the June 24th Vote of Parliament instructing the government to accept the French proposal to resolve the North Macedonia issue.
While the poll was being conducted, Prime Minister Kiril Petkov announced June 28th that 70 Russian diplomats would be expelled July 1the WCC announced that Assen Vassilev and not Petkov would be its prime ministerial candidate.
Alpha Research’s regular quarterly poll put the Bulgarian Socialist Party in third place, its support rising to 11.5 percent in June from 10.2 percent in April.
In fourth place was the rights and freedoms movement, from 7.6 percent to 8.8 percent.
Support for the pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane, currently the smallest faction in parliament with 12 out of 240 MPs, fell from 9.4 percent to 7.9 percent.
Support for democratic Bulgaria rose from 6.7 percent to 7.1 percent.
A new addition is the rising Bulgaria party of former acting prime minister Stefan Yanev with 5.4 percent. If the results of this poll are confirmed in an election, it would be the seventh of seven factions in Parliament, given the four percent threshold for a seat share in the National Assembly.
Trifonov’s ITN is now below that four percent mark after falling to 3.3 percent from 4.5 percent.
Undecided which party to vote for fell to 10.1 percent in June from 12.6 percent in April.
Alpha Research said WCC has grown in the Bulgarian capital Sofia and several large cities, while GERB maintains its support in smaller district capitals, towns and villages.
The agency said Vuzrazhdane’s rise has been halted, both because of the intensification of the confrontation between GERB and WCC, which pushed Vuzrazhdane out of the main political focus, and because of competition in the left-Russian landscape from the BSP and Yanev’s Bulgaria Rising Party .
Alpha Research said that BSP leader Kornelia Ninova’s skillful maneuvering between her government affiliation and her “red lines” has managed to stabilize the party’s electoral support, but there is strong dynamics on this part of the spectrum.
Bulgaria Ascending started with just over five percent support and the coming months would show how the votes would be split between it, the BSP and Vuzrazhdane, the agency said.
Democratic Bulgaria stuck to its voters in Sofia and the big cities, Alpha Research said.
49.5 percent of respondents were in favor of electing a new government in the current parliament, while 46.7 percent wanted snap elections.
When asked which government coalition would be better at running the country, 31.9 percent said it was around the WCC, while 25.2 percent said GERB had done better in the current situation.
Just over 20 percent would prefer a completely different alternative.
Voters who prioritize economic issues and their material status are more likely to choose a coalition around GERB, and those who emphasize corruption and its impact on economic processes a coalition around the WCC.
Approval for Head of State Roumen Radev has fallen, his approval rating fell by eight points from 51 percent to 43 percent between April and June.
Alpha Research attributed the decline in Radev’s approval rating and the seven percent rise in his disapproval rating to his sharp clashes with the parties in the governing coalition.
The government’s approval rating rose slightly after its supporters rose after the no-confidence vote.
After the government’s approval rating fell dramatically in April, it rose three points from 19 to 22 percent. However, the rejection rate was nearly 46 percent.
The approval ratings of WCC’s Petkov and Vassilev were about the same, at about 23 percent, as were their disapproval rates, at about 46 percent.
Borissov’s approval rating increased by one percent to 20.2 percent, while his disapproval stood at 57 percent.
BSP leader Ninova’s approval rating was 18.6 percent, with a disapproval rating of 48.4 percent, broadly unchanged from April.
Democratic Bulgaria’s Hristo Ivanov’s approval rating rose two percent to 18 percent, while his disapproval rating fell seven points.
Vuzrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov’s approval rating fell four percent to 13 percent, while Trifonov’s approval rating fell five percent to 8.5 percent.
The 47th National Assembly has a 60 percent opposition rating and an 8.7 percent approval rating — a continuation of years of trend of a strikingly low opposition rate to the legislature.
“Obviously, approval is slightly higher among supporters of the governing coalition, but even among them it does not exceed 15 percent,” says Alpha Research.
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