US prices will fall in 2022 –

The average annual US wheat price is forecast to fall 2% year-on-year to $250 per tonne in 2022, driven by lower domestic consumption coupled with resilient global supply. Market balance is supported by production gains in Argentina and the EU to offset declining production in Brazil and Paraguay.

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 17, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The average annual price for US hard red winter wheat will fall 2% year-on-year in 2022 to $250 per tonne, according to a recent report from market research firm IndexBox. The reduction in domestic consumption is expected to become the main reason for this decline as the feed conversion ratio of wheat is expected to decrease due to relatively high prices compared to other grains. The EU and Ukraine are said to follow a similar trend.

Global wheat supply will remain stable in 2022 as increases in production in Argentina and the EU will offset expected declines in Brazil and Paraguay and lower initial stocks in Russia. Argentina’s production will surpass a record 20.5 million tons this year.

In 2022, projected global trade will fall to 204 million due to reduced shipments from the US and Russia. American wheat remains uncompetitive in foreign markets, while the Russian government imposes quotas on export volumes to ensure adequate domestic supplies and stabilize domestic food prices. Rising deliveries from the EU could only partially offset this drop in global exports.

Global wheat exports

Global wheat exports were estimated at 199 million tons in 2020, up 13% year-on-year. In terms of value, shipments increased significantly to $45.3 billion.

Shipments from the top five wheat exporters, namely Russia, the US, Canada, France and Ukraine, accounted for more than half of global shipments. Australia (10 million tons) is second with a 5.2% share of total exports, followed by Argentina (5.1%) and Germany (4.7%). The following exporters – Kazakhstan (5.4 million tons), Poland (4.7 million tons), Romania (4.3 million tons), Lithuania (4 million tons) and Bulgaria (3.2 million tons ) – together accounted for 11% of the total.

In terms of value, the countries with the highest export levels in 2020 were Russia ($7.9 billion), the United States ($6.3 billion), and Canada ($6.3 billion), accounting for a combined 45% share of the worldwide deliveries. These countries were followed by France, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria with another 44%.

The world’s largest wheat importers

The purchases of the twelve major wheat importers, namely Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, China, Italy, Algeria, Philippines, Brazil, Bangladesh, Morocco and Japan accounted for more than a third of the total volume. The Netherlands (4.3 million tons) accounted for a small proportion of world imports.

The top global wheat import markets by value were Egypt ($2.7 billion), Indonesia ($2.6 billion) and Turkey ($2.3 billion), which together accounted for 16% of international purchases. These countries were followed by China, Nigeria, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Japan, Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and the Netherlands with another 34%.

About IndexBox

IndexBox is a market research firm developing an AI-driven market intelligence platform that helps business analysts generate actionable insights and make data-driven decisions. The platform offers data on consumption, production, trade and prices for more than 10,000 different products in 200 countries.

For more information, please visit





Companies mentioned in the report

Archer Daniels Midland Company, Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Louis Dreyfus Company BV, General Mills, Glencore International AG, United Grain Company Yug LLC, RIF LLC, Wudeli Flour Mill Group, Ardent Mills, Allied Pinnacle Pty Limited, Manildra Milling Pvt Ltd, Acarsan Flour, KORFEZ Flour Mills, George Weston Foods Limited, Hodgson Mill, Mtk Ltd, Vneshtorg-Rus LLC, Vostok-Snab, Diet Prom LLC, TPK Varna, Adascan Grain Corporation, ADM Agri-Industries Company, Agricom International Inc. , Agrocorp Processing Ltd., Agri-Tel Grain Limited, Besco Grain Ltd.


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